StormVanguard

Steam Charts

36 posts in this topic

Doing a rough estimate of the 150/300$ tier that's around 3.6k that didn't log in that was given a key for Steam.

http://steamcharts.com/app/449830#7d

And only 228 max logged in. I honestly don't get why no one at least fired up their client to take a look around.

Degica's disappointment i think is completely justifiable.

Edited by StormVanguard

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My guess is some of them are waiting for either Alternative to play both together or the patch for the censored content.

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@Svenhent I just don't want to think of the possibility most people dislike Extra/Unlimited this much and only find pleasure in 'anatomically correct nipples' and porn.

The Dakimakura's actually did scary well so the patch might very well be their reasoning.

It would be nice if they wanted to read Muv-Luv as a complete package sure but let's be honest here i think most people are anticipating only Alternative.

But I would like to think people are better than that and Extra/Unlimited carries itself.

 

 

Edited by StormVanguard

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@StormVanguard My thoughts exactly. Though from what I see not all of the the anticipation for the patch are directed specifically for the adult content. Some are just preferring "full access" of contents before trying out so I guess that might be a more positive take at it.

Let's hope more would try out Extra+Unlimited after reviews and recommendations among the community, the current translation is definitely worth a read.

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This data doesn't mean much.

http://steamspy.com/app/449830

It also has a 98% positive score.

Look at this data.  7000 + or _ 2,100  - So the game has sold 5,000 to 9,000 copies on Steam. Also remember plenty of copies weren't Steam ones.  This is tracking far ahead of Clannad. CLannad  within it's first few weeks sold around 2,500.  With sales and nearly a year of being sold, it sits around 33,000.

 

Also, Muv Luv didn't even get a Steam pop up ad. This is actually one of the better selling VNs on Steam. Not including the porn based Sakura series.  According to Steam Spy, it's the 6th best selling game on Steam overall.

 

The fact of the matter is though, they made MOST of their initial sales via Kickstarter.   Though alot of people sold their Steam key. I know I got my key from someone who only wanted the boxed / Vita version or something, got mine for 15 dorra.

 

Alot people have also read it, for free, like I did, years ago when the fan translation patches come out. Now a new release comes out, 35$, removed sex scenes, cropped CG's, and missing music...and well, you have to accept the fact that despite it being widescreen(ish) now and  the subjectively better translation, some people won't see that as a reason to drop 35$. Meanwhile, there are HUGE sales going around on the Internet. The latest DOOM game has regularly been on sale for under 30$. 25$ in many places. As well as a ton of other great games on massive sales. So maybe it was just poor timing as pretty much every major online retailer except Steam is doing their Summer sale now.(Later than Steams, to avoid it.)  So these people say "I can pay 35$ for a VN...or pay 25$ for the latest DOOM game"  - and yes, I know that you'll get way more 'playtime' out of Muv Luv due to the story length (Doom itself is supposed to be about 15 hours on average, with Muv Luv Extra + Unlimited should provide like 50), it also has Multiplayer, a long legacy, and a huge amount of advertising.

 

So many new games released that are popular in the same time-frame as well.  Also VNS are just in general, not popular on Steam due to titles like the Sakura  series making anyone who might've been open to the genre, think it's only smut related. I also think putting the Pilot suits & Panty shots on the page for Muv Luv did it a disservice. Made it seem as immature as those ones.

Edited by Mkilbride

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As far as I'm concerned, I have activated my key but don't intend to start playing before I have everything available.

I don't like waiting when I start something, it breaks the flow like a commercial in the middle of a great movie. But I'm very patient if I didn't start. That goes for episodic games as well as TV series.

Once I have all the games, I'll "marathon" them :P

I suppose many others are waiting for some similar reason.

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Since we last talked, the numbers on Steam spy have jumped!  It went from 6th, to 2nd! (In trending) According to Steamspys data, it may have sold  750 copies or so since this morning. No mean feat. 

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5 minutes ago, Mkilbride said:

Since we last talked, the numbers on Steam spy have jumped!  It went from 6th, to 2nd! (In trending) According to Steamspys data, it may have sold  750 copies or so since this morning. No mean feat. 

These numbers are far better then I expected considering that right now is likely the low point of the sales.. 

I expect when Alt and the patches are out we will see a big jump in sales/being playing it once the first sale after that hits. (there should be a spike as well when alt launches and the patches are out even without a sale as well) 

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Alt will jump sales.

 

The thing is, people will be disappointed if they were expecting to see like...100,000+ copies sold. That's rare for alot of games on Steam, let alone Muv Luv. We also don't know how many non-Steam copies they've sold, as Steam is -optional-.

 

Keep in mind too, that Steam takes a 30% cut of profits. Versus the 70% Retailers take. So every digital sale on Steam is like selling over 2 copies retail.  Clannad hit 30,000 owners with the recent 50% off sale.  That's considered a smashing success. The thing to remember is the VN community is small and most people have already played these "huge" VNs, for "free" years ago, and dumping 35 to 50$ on them can seem nuts.

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They also make pennies off the steam cards heh.. I wonder if they have even made enough money to get everyone at the office a cup of coffee yet.. Somehow I doubt that they have due to activity being low on the cards. (partly due to them making it a 15 card set) 

 

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Yeah, what's up with that? I've never seen ANY game have 15 cards. Most have 10! And you get 5 of them from drops, so you can trade around and get the full set without paying too much.

 

Yet with this...geeze. It's crazy. I got one duplicate, so in a way I'm lucky, at the same time though, so few people I know will have cards, completing this set is going to be impossibru.

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52 minutes ago, Mkilbride said:

Yeah, what's up with that? I've never seen ANY game have 15 cards. Most have 10! And you get 5 of them from drops, so you can trade around and get the full set without paying too much.

You get 8 cards from drops not 5. The problem is the packs are always 3 cards but that can't be fixed now. 

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Considering how the KS attracted many Muv Luv fans to back for it, it's not surprising how not as many people would buy it afterwards. Also, people are likely to be waiting for Alternative before trying Extra/Unlimited since they don't have to wait to get to the conclusion of the trilogy. I would have a sale for the original when Alternative comes out. While they aren't likely to go under $25 to avoid controversy with the people who backed it, I personally wouldn't mind if they go lower as it would have been a few months by then anyways. Maybe put both games in a $70 (compared to the original KS price of $60) bundle or something. 

Many or possibly most of the Muv Luv franchise sales post-KS will come through non-Photon side material and spin offs, such as Total Eclipse and Schwarzesmarken. And The Day After when that's done. That title might do pretty well as an episodic installment of $10 per episode, but I'm getting ahead of myself.

I personally have no problem with forking over $30-$50 for lengthy VNs as I understand that the consumer base I am part of is willing to pay that price and that the smallness of the consumer base necesitates such a high price to make a profit. Lowering the price drastically would increase sales, but not enough new people would pay to justify the cost decrease. Not to mention that I don't buy what more normal people buy for entertainment (like Netflix, theater, or alcohol), so I have more than enough money for niche things. Most people who complain about the price don't understand what it means to be a part of a niche fanbase, and some think that Muv Luv may be a mainstream enough VN to gather enough sales to justify a significant cost reduction. The latter is a risky assumption, one I would not expect Degica to wager on beyond the occasional Steam sale.

 

Edited by encrypted12345

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I see Alternative releasing for 25$ is most likely. The Trilogy was 60$ on KS. 25 + 35 = 60. Just makes sense. But yeah, make it 20$ /w the "Pre-sale" you saw with Muv-Luv available for 30$ before release.  But yeah, most people who wanted the game, backed the KS.

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2 minutes ago, Mkilbride said:

I see Alternative releasing for 25$ is most likely. The Trilogy was 60$ on KS. 25 + 35 = 60. Just makes sense. But yeah, make it 20$ /w the "Pre-sale" you saw with Muv-Luv available for 30$ before release.  But yeah, most people who wanted the game, backed the KS.

Bullshit. Muv-Luv was 25$ on KS -> 35$ on steam. MLA was 35$ on KS and will most likely be 45$ on steam. It's not unlikely that there'll be a bundle for 70$. Substract 10% for the preorder sale and the triology will be at 63$. which is still 3$ more than the KS edition (60$). They won't make it cheaper than that or else KS backers will be pissed.

Also, why would they make MLA, which is the longer part that also clearly has more work put into it cheaper than Muv-Luv?

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You came off as pretty aggressive there.  They also, you know, want it to sell. If they put up Alternative for 45$ - it's not going to sell. See Clannad for example. It barely sold any copies. I think it sold like 300 in it's first week. It's sitting pretty @ 30,000 or so now, after multiple 50% off sales.  Most common complaint right now is that ML on Steam is too expensive. VNs are a niche.  The thing people need to realize, the businessmen mostly, is that they need to get out of the "It's a niche product, it's only going to sell so little, we must price it high to recoup costs" -  Steam has, time and time again, shown this to be the opposite. Gabe Newell has talked about this in the past.  Several developer friends who produce games on Steam (Contagion, Insurgency, Killing Floor), talk about how when they reduce the price, they often see increases of thousands of percent in revenue.     I'd say 60$ for all 3 games is a fair price. Asking any more is asking for it not to sell. 70$? You could buy several AAA games that will last you much longer.  I love Alternative, but 45$ is a fools price if they plan on that.

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37 minutes ago, Mkilbride said:

You came off as pretty aggressive there.  They also, you know, want it to sell. If they put up Alternative for 45$ - it's not going to sell. See Clannad for example. It barely sold any copies. I think it sold like 300 in it's first week. It's sitting pretty @ 30,000 or so now, after multiple 50% off sales.  Most common complaint right now is that ML on Steam is too expensive. VNs are a niche.  The thing people need to realize, the businessmen mostly, is that they need to get out of the "It's a niche product, it's only going to sell so little, we must price it high to recoup costs" -  Steam has, time and time again, shown this to be the opposite. Gabe Newell has talked about this in the past.  Several developer friends who produce games on Steam (Contagion, Insurgency, Killing Floor), talk about how when they reduce the price, they often see increases of thousands of percent in revenue.     I'd say 60$ for all 3 games is a fair price. Asking any more is asking for it not to sell. 70$? You could buy several AAA games that will last you much longer.  I love Alternative, but 45$ is a fools price if they plan on that.

Just in case my point wasn't clear enough: Selling MLA for less than 35$ on release would be disrespectful for > 90% of all KS backers and therefore won't happen, no matter what you think / people have said / studies have shown. 45$ for MLA is just a projected guess based on the prices of Muv-Luv with 40$ being the most likely alternative (heh) and 50$ still in the realm of possibility.

Both games will drop in price at some point and there will be sales just like for every other game, that's how the industry works. If you want to play on release -> pay full price. If you want a good deal, wait for a sale. That's how it works for any game - niche or not.

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http://steamspy.com/app/377670

 

Wanna check out another VN that chose that approach?  ML has already outsold it and that one has been out since LAST November.  It's also pretty highly rated, right up there with ML.

 

Perhaps they should offer dual versions as well, if voices are so expensive?  It wasn't a well received decision, but still.  It doesn't matter what you think a VN is worth.  It matters what the general public thinks they are worth.

 

They see a fully 3D game, with hundreds of hours of voice acting, actual gameplay behind clicking, and it sells for 59.99$ - and on sale for less than that. Then you have a VN. It's mostly still images.  Not -everything- is voice acted, either.  The perceived value of VNS is much lower.

 

Thing is, I can go buy a book for 7-8$ on Amazon. It'll provide me with like say, 30-40 hours of reading. Some longer, some shorter. VNs simply feel too expensive to Westerners. We may have been playing them(Unofficially) for decades, but the main gamer audience hasn't. So they see a VN and the price and go "Who are they are kidding? Rip off!"

Edited by Mkilbride

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1 hour ago, WS Eule said:

Just in case my point wasn't clear enough: Selling MLA for less than 35$ on release would be disrespectful for > 90% of all KS backers and therefore won't happen, no matter what you think / people have said / studies have shown. 45$ for MLA is just a projected guess based on the prices of Muv-Luv with 40$ being the most likely alternative (heh) and 50$ still in the realm of possibility.

Most of the backer went for a physical copy, which means they got MLA for less than 30 USD, so it would be "< 20%".

Thanks to steam's regional prices, MLA would be sold for less than 35 USD in many countries, so even at that price it would be "disrespectful" for backers in those countries.

Still, seeing how Degica released that Nurse VN for 40 USD (!), there is no way they are gonna release Alt for less than that. So yeah, I agree with you, 45 USD for Alt.

31 minutes ago, Mkilbride said:

but the main gamer audience hasn't. So they see a VN and the price and go "Who are they are kidding? Rip off!"

"The main gamer audience" only cares about guns, online multiplayer and bugs, so selling Alt cheaper won't make them buy it.

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1 hour ago, Mkilbride said:

It matters what the general public thinks they are worth.

The general public doesn't even know what a VN is, let alone Muv-Luv. So no, it doesn't matter what the general public thinks about the pricing of VNs.

The average gamer probably wouldn't buy this game even if it was F2P or would just ask about the ero-content. Also the average steam user is in an age where people generally don't like reading but would rather shoot stuff. VNs will always only sell a limited amount of copies and there's nothing to be done about other than somehow expanding their audience. A lower price tag sadly won't achieve that.

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What? One of the highest rated games of all time and just sold over 10 million units is The Witcher 3. People aren't playing it for it's OK combat system, it has hundreds of ours of text to read or listen to.  Recent years, reading is actually going UP among youth.  They said children today are reading more books than children in the past 60 years. (in the US)

 

You all seem to have a pretty low opinion of the general public.  But I can see this argument is going nowhere.

Edited by Mkilbride

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1 hour ago, Mkilbride said:

You all seem to have a pretty low opinion of the general public.  But I can see this argument is going nowhere.

I can't help it. Normalfags, the lot of them. Obsessed about one thing one moment, only to ditch it in a few months. Like say, Pokemon Go, probably.

I think it's fair to ignore the mainstream when pricing a niche title. Muv Luv MIGHT appeal to (more) normal Steam users to justify a price decrease to increase sales (like the otaku JRPG fanbase), but that's still a risky gamble. It certainly won't appeal to the FPS or even the Witcher fanbase though.

 

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http://store.steampowered.com/app/282900

This right here, is the most purchased VN on Steam, with  287,000 copies sold on Steam alone. I know it was on PS3 though.  However, it also has RPG / Gamepaly elements, so maybe that's abit of a cheat, no?] (Also I am not counting "Free" VNS)

 

Next up would be:

http://steamspy.com/app/313740

 

A actual VN. Well, it's a Sakura title...but you get the gist.  It has 285,000 copies sold. Barrier to entry is only 10 bucks though. Also full of TnA.

Next is Nekopara.   247,000 copies. You get the gist. Pron game.  Barrier to entry: 10 bucks.

 

Next is the much lauded Hatoful Boyfriend:

 

http://store.steampowered.com/app/310080

 

10 bucks.   240,000 owners.

 

Can see all the data here: http://steamspy.com/tag/Visual+Novel

 

But unless the game has RPG game elements, anything that costs more than 20$ doesn't sell.  By comparison, as said above, Clannad tried for 50$...it sold a few thousand in the first few months. @ 50% off, the number skyrocketed to 30,000.

 

Now, I'm not big on math, but if you could say, choose 100,000 sales @ 20$ or 7,000 sales @ 45, which would you pick?

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